22 July 2026

Gas maths

Revealing the fossil bias of Europe’s electricity grid operators

The US-Israeli led conflict in Iran has once again sent global fossil fuel prices spiralling. European households and businesses find themselves paying the price for the continent’s reliance on imported fossil fuels. Higher fossil gas prices have caused increases not only in gas costs but also electricity, especially in countries that rely heavily on gas to produce power.  

When it comes to the electricity sector, Europe has two pathways open: lock in a new generation of gas fleets across Europe and extend the life of existing fossil plants; or invest in future-proof clean flexibility solutions that can support Europe’s energy independence through renewables-based electrification. 

These decisions will be ultimately driven by politics, but also informed and underpinned by the modelling and analysis of Europe’s Transmission System Operators (TSOs). 

Our research shows that many TSOs have been systematically underestimating fossil-free flexibility solutions, leading to a possible overestimation of the fossil gas capacity needed. This risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy wherein gas-biased modelling is used to justify the construction of new gas plants, or the prolonged presence of existing gas plants – resulting in discrimination against fossil-free flexibility options and leaving Europe energy insecure.